October 3, 2022
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2022 Stanley Cup Final: Avalanche vs. Lightning odds, NHL picks, Game 2 prediction from advanced hockey model

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The Tampa Bay Lightning don’t want to go into another 2-0 hole and will try to snatch a road victory Saturday against the Colorado Avalanche in Game 2 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final. The Lightning were outplayed in the first two games against the Rangers in the East final but then won four straight. The Avalanche swept the Oilers in the West and looked fresh in taking a 1-0 series lead on the two-time defending champs with a 4-3 overtime victory Wednesday night. Still, Tampa Bay stormed back from a 3-1 first-period deficit to force the extra period, and both teams are studded with offensive talent. The Lightning are seeking their third straight Stanley Cup and fourth overall, while Colorado has won it twice but had not reached the Final since it beat New Jersey in 2000-01.

Opening face-off at Denver’s Ball Center is set for 8 p.m. ET. Colorado is the -150 favorite (risk $150 to win $100) on the money line in Caesars Sportsbook’s latest Avalanche vs. Lightning odds. Tampa Bay is a +130 underdog, and the over-under for total goals scored is six. Before making any Lightning vs. Avalanche picks, check out the NHL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates each NHL game 10,000 times. It enters the 2022 Stanley Cup Final on a 23-18 run on its top-rated NHL side picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.

Now, the model has its sights on Avs vs. Lightning. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NHL odds and betting trends for Lightning vs. Avs: 

  • Avalanche vs. Lightning money line: Colorado -150, Tampa Bay +130
  • Avalanche vs. Lightning over-under: 6 goals
  • Avalanche vs. Lightning puck line: Colorado -1.5 (+170)
  • Avalanche vs. Lightning tickets: See tickets at StubHub
  • COL: C Nathan MacKinnon has at least one point in 13 of the 15 playoff games.
  • TB: D Mikhail Sergachev has two goals and two assists in the past three contests.

Featured Game | Colorado Avalanche vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

Why the Avalanche can win

Colorado is 38-6-5 at home this season, while the Lightning are 29-19-3 on the road, and the favorite is 16-5 in the past 21 meetings. The Avalanche were buzzing early in Game 1, with fresh legs and some cooped-up energy after they swept the Oilers in the West finals. They scored 22 goals in those four games and have 69 in the 15 playoff games. MacKinnon and defenseman Cale Makar are superstars, but Colorado has plenty of talented complementary pieces. Makar leads the team with 22 points and 17 assists in the playoffs.

MacKinnon has 11 goals, five on the power play, and 19 points. Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen also have 19 points. Landeskog scored Wednesday night, along with Artturi Lehkonen and Valeri Nichushkin, who are also among the seven players with at least 10 postseason points. The Avalanche are 10-1 in their last 11 games on two days’ rest, and the Lightning are still recovering from a six-game series with the Rangers. Colorado outshot Tampa Bay 38-23 in Game 1, and the Lightning had four takeaways while the Avalanche had 17.

Why the Lightning can win

Tampa Bay has won five of the past seven meetings between the teams in Denver. It hasn’t lost any significant pieces from its back-to-back Cup-winning team. That means stars Andrei Vasilevskiy and Victor Hedman remain to prevent the goals and Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov to score them. And those stars get plenty of help. Stamkos had 42 goals in the regular season as eight players scored at least 18. He shares the team lead with Ondrej Palat with nine in the playoffs. Kucherov leads the team in postseason points with 24 (17 assists).

The Lightning should have confidence after rallying in Game 1, and they bounced back from big opening-night losses in two of their three playoff series. They lost 5-0 to Toronto to start their postseason run and were blown out 6-2 by the Rangers in Game 1 of the East final. Having Vasilevskiy in net gives the team a margin for error, and he is 17-1 in games following a loss in his last 18 such playoff games. The reigning Conn Smythe winner has a 92.6 save percentage in this postseason. Hedman has blocked 33 shots, and the team has 298 blocks in 18 games

How to make Lightning vs. Avalanche picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, as the simulations have the teams combining for 7.1 goals. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Lightning vs. Avalanche in Game 2 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Avalanche vs. Lightning money line to jump on, all from the advanced model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times.





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